By Michelle Grattan
When Kevin Rudd announced last week that his aortic valve needed to be replaced again, it was a classic performance. His message, in red lights, was ''don't think this could drive me out of politics'' and nothing was left to chance.
He issued a statement and held a press conference (to also talk about going to Indonesia and Africa). And then his heart doctor, Professor David Celermajer, from the Royal Prince Alfred Hospital, was deployed. The doctor did his own news conference, briefed curious reporters and went on radio.
Classic Rudd style ... Rudd's health issues will not affect his intention to contest Griffith.Credit: Alex Ellinghausen
If the good professor thought having to go to such lengths was a stretch for a patient, he didn't say so. Perhaps taking care of the Rudd heart and its hyperactive owner readies one for a lot.
Rudd's statement said he'd recontest Griffith and if re-elected: ''I intend to continue to make a contribution to our country's future as a member of the government.''
On the latest Nielsen poll, which has Labor's primary vote at 26 per cent, the chances of being part of a post-election Labor government look, at this moment, remote.
So, given he's so insistent about staying around, how does Rudd actually see his political future?
There's been the assumption that the only thing that would stand between Rudd and the leadership, if the party did decide to dump Gillard, would be the caucus's determination that he never make a comeback. But would Rudd himself want the top job back in those circumstances? Not if he were wise.
As it is, he's something of a martyr in the public's mind and, as time goes by, his government may be remembered more favourably. If a miracle restored him to the leadership before the election, the ALP's fortunes would probably revive somewhat. But polling showing him well above Julia Gillard as preferred Labor leader almost certainly wouldn't translate into great support for Labor.
More likely, people would already have done with the ALP, or would have their negative impressions reinforced by the farce of another leadership change. If Rudd led Labor to the election and suffered a serious rebuff he, rather than Gillard, would be left with that bad legacy.
So, ironically, the ALP's unwillingness to contemplate a return to Rudd might be the best turn the party could do him.
The party's ban would probably extend to the job of opposition leader after a defeat. Anyway, by then the ALP would be looking to the next generation - Bill Shorten and the like - who could take a couple of terms in the opposition wilderness.
So Rudd's best option is to make the most of the coming two years in his Foreign Minister job and see what comes along. It would be strange if some reasonable overseas job wasn't on the horizon by then.
As PM, Rudd was very good to those on the other side of politics when it came to appointments. Brendan Nelson and Tim Fischer were spectacular beneficiaries, each receiving plum postings. There would be no such largesse from an Abbott government. But maybe, if he hadn't already found something, an exception might be made for a former PM? Either an ambassadorial job, or backing for an international one? Perhaps Julie Bishop, who would likely be Foreign Minister in an Abbott government and is good mates with Rudd, might put in a word for him.
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