What a difference a year doesn't make

We’re sorry, this feature is currently unavailable. We’re working to restore it. Please try again later.

Advertisement

This was published 12 years ago

What a difference a year doesn't make

By Phillip Coorey

On this day last year, the Herald's front-page headline blared ''Labor faces wipeout''. The monthly Herald/Nielsen poll had confirmed what was for Labor and Kevin Rudd a catastrophic plunge in fortunes in just two months, precipitated by the abandonment of the emissions trading scheme, the mining tax battle and boat people.

Rudd's reaction was to eschew the pro forma ''I-don't-comment-on-polls'' routine and warn that should these results be replicated on election day, Tony Abbott would be prime minister. That failed to worry the people and, three weeks later, Rudd was put to the sword by his own people.

Little has changed ... Julia Gillard's ratings are identical to those of Rudd a year ago.

Little has changed ... Julia Gillard's ratings are identical to those of Rudd a year ago.Credit: Reuters

As the political establishment looks towards the June 24 anniversary of Rudd's ousting, it is worth reflecting that little has changed.

A year ago, Labor's primary vote was 33 per cent and the Coalition's 43 per cent. The most recent Herald/Nielsen poll taken about three weeks ago had Labor trailing the Coalition by 31 per cent to 47 per cent.

The Prime Minister's approval and disapproval ratings are statistically identical to those of Rudd a year ago - in what was his final poll as prime minister - while Abbott has lifted in terms of both preferred prime minister and approval. (One anomaly is that Rudd is enormously popular again. Even The New York Times has noticed. Its Australia-based correspondent came to Canberra last week and was granted a lengthy interview with the Foreign Affairs Minister.) The key difference for Labor is that although the polls still point to a wipeout, an election is not due for two years, whereas this time last year, the election was due before the end of the year.

Although anxiety levels are high, there is no panic yet. When Julia Gillard took the leadership, she identified three priorities: the mining tax, climate change and asylum seekers. A year later, all three remain works in progress and, to varying degrees, continue to drag down the government.

The mining tax was watered down in a pre-election deal that satisfied the minerals giants. Western Australia's recent decision to raise state royalties on fine iron ore and thus potentially plunder the proceeds of the tax exposed a gaping flaw that resulted from hasty negotiations. Nonetheless, the tax should be passed by the Parliament before year's end.

The carbon scheme debate is full steam ahead. There is a policy process in place and as hurtful as the issue is to the government, it has not run off the rails and it is too early to judge its final political impact.

As for asylum seekers, the politics is as damaging as ever but is also topsy-turvy. The ''Malaysia solution'' has seen the Coalition and the tabloids join forces with the refugee advocates in urging compassion while Labor has become the bad guy. Even the ''Pacific solution'', the creation of the same party that sooled the SAS on to a shipload of refugees in 2001, is seen as more humane. Detention on the guano-encrusted atoll of Nauru under Australian government oversight is preferable to the human rights hellhole of a Malaysian refugee camp.

Advertisement

It is a key lesson that when the left of politics tries to embrace the right, it ends up being outflanked and criticised by both sides. So much so that Abbott will be the voice of compassion on Wednesday when he speaks to the Lowy Institute on border protection.

Labor hopes the publicity about its ''harsh'' Malaysia solution will work insofar as it stops the boats - five have arrived since the announcement - and resonates in the marginal seats. But as it strives to put the deal together, it also risks being seen by an already cynical electorate as another policy stuff-up. No one has adequately explained why the ''deal'' with Malaysia was announced before it was signed. It has been a constant flaw of Labor both under Rudd and Gillard: announce something before it is stitched up and then suffer damage as the deal threatens to unravel and critics fill the details vacuum with their own claims.

On border protection, Gillard did it first with East Timor and then Malaysia. It is still likely the Malaysian deal will be sealed if only because failure would be catastrophic for the government, and not just because of the loss of face.

As the political establishment looks towards the June 24 anniversary of Rudd's ousting, it is worth reflecting that little has changed.

The Left of the party is just holding on in terms of support, reassured by the 4000 extra refugees coming to Australia, and the overwatch of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees.

But if the UNHCR pulls its support, as it threatened momentarily over the weekend, the Left would revolt and the outburst in caucus last week over live cattle exports to Indonesia shows just how capable the faction is of making a noise.

Phillip Coorey is the Herald's chief political correspondent.

Most Viewed in Politics

Loading