By Michelle Grattan
Saturday's thumping NSW Coalition win continues the anti-Labor tide that has been sweeping the country, and sends a clear and alarming message to the federal independents.
The result will affect - but not of itself transform - the federal political landscape. Julia Gillard could push back the tide, or succumb to it, at the next federal election. But she will face more obstacles and Labor will be deprived of much of its political ''infrastructure'' in a state that will be a key to her fate.
The NSW outcome can be explained almost completely in state terms. Labor has been, over recent years, an indescribably appalling government, with its extraordinary scandals, frequent leadership changes, internal fights and mismanagement. It is a passing irony that former union boss John Robertson, who helped bring down a former premier, is now favourite for opposition leader.
Some Labor sources argue that the state government has been dragging federal Labor down in NSW, so its removal will be a net benefit.
But the change will further complicate life for Gillard. She'll now be negotiating with three Liberal premiers, and with Campbell Newman taking over as opposition leader in Queensland, there could soon be a fourth.
Working with premiers of another complexion is not always a problem, but putting in place the nitty gritty of the health agreement is likely to become even more difficult for Gillard - and so could the national education curriculum.
On the other hand, Barry O'Farrell has to meet big expectations, and will need federal assistance, especially on transport infrastructure. It is not in his interests to pick fights willy nilly.
The one federal issue O'Farrell brought into his campaign was the carbon tax, although whether it had any effect is disputed. Labor denies it cost votes, saying they were all gone anyway; the Liberals insist it kept alive the cost of living issue. O'Farrell said on Saturday night: ''We will take this fight up to Canberra.'' What this will mean in practice is unclear.
Within Labor, people ask what the rebuff will mean for the power of the NSW Right, whose methods (including the state leadership merry-go-round) were considerably to blame for the result.
The faction has lost its big power centre. But it believes state Labor has won enough seats to head off federal intervention, and with some 19 members and senators it has its strong representation in Canberra.
Still, it can look forward to very harsh judgments as the bitter post-mortems come.
Saturday's result was not the triumph the Greens had hoped for - they remain in the hunt for one lower house seat, but not the two they'd expected. Adam Bandt knows he's likely to be a one-termer in the seat of Melbourne, assuming the federal Liberals, like those in Victoria and NSW, do not preference the Greens.
The clearest message is to the independents, especially Rob Oakeshott. His protege in Port Macquarie, within his seat of Lyne, was swept out. In Tony Windsor's seat one state independent lost; the other won. Oakeshott in particular looks, as things stand, to be gone at the next election.
But the independents won't be switching sides, barring some extraordinary development. That would just increase voter cynicism. Whether they might vote a little more often with the Coalition on particular issues remains to be seen.
Michelle Grattan is Age political editor.