No escaping a fortnight from hell for Rudd

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This was published 13 years ago

No escaping a fortnight from hell for Rudd

By PHILLIP COOREY

A well-sourced rumour last week had it that a small group of prominent Labor warhorses in NSW so disliked Kevin Rudd they had formed a lunch club. On being contacted by the Herald, a couple of supposed key members denied any such club existed.

But one suggested it was a good idea and worth consideration. ''He's going to lose the election,'' he said of Rudd. ''He's just ruined the hopes of a generation. When he's done and dusted, it will all come out.''

A year ago Rudd was equalling Bob Hawke as Australia's most popular prime minister. Now he must wake up each morning and wonder whose dog he's killed. The mounting attacks against him from the party's old guard - including those who now work for coal companies - and the rent seekers border on the visceral. He's copping it from the left, the right and even his own brother.

It was always said when Rudd unravelled, it would be spectacular. People are deserting him as quickly as they embraced him. Last week, for example, the retail king Gerry Harvey labelled the government ''bloody amateurs'' for its handling of the resources super profits tax. A year ago Harvey was effusive when, thanks to the same pack of bloody amateurs, punters with $900 stimulus cheques stuffed in their pockets walked into his stores and bought plasma TVs.

Compounding Rudd's predicament is a lack of third-party support. Unlike the conservative side of politics, the left does not have a claque of high-rating and high-circulation media commentators to circle wagons when times are tough, as John Howard had.

Commentators who sit on the left tend to join the attack rather than defend. Imagine, for instance, if Rudd had tried to sell to the public the invasion of Iraq. A combination of his inability to sell a message and a hostile commentariat would just about sink him.

One wonders whether Howard was being a little cryptic about the mining tax when he popped up at a function last week to remind us one of the keys to his endurance was not just taking unpopular decisions but standing by them.

''Sometimes a leader has to take decisions the majority of people don't agree with,'' he said. While this may have been regarded as offering Rudd encouragement, Howard also said ''the most important characteristic of leadership is to get the big issues right''.

Today, there will be some joy for the government when a collective of lobbies representing unions, consumers, the environment and the welfare sector unite behind the resources tax.

They say the voices of ordinary Australians need to be heard ''in a tax debate that has been dominated by powerful vested mining interests''. At the same time, the mining industry will target ''ordinary Australians'' by shifting its campaign emphasis from the broadsheets to the tabloids.

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Rudd faces a fraught fortnight starting tomorrow when Parliament sits for what could be the last session before an election is called. Until recently, it was to be the usual hectic pre-election sitting with a popularity-boosting visit by the US President, Barack Obama, as its highlight.

With Obama no longer coming, Rudd and his super profits tax will be the main focus and there is nothing more dangerous for a political leader under pressure than having all the MPs together in one place.

No one is denying there is fear throughout the ranks and concern about whether Rudd can pull it back. There is talk about Julia Gillard but it is just that - talk. Those close to Gillard say she is not agitating and the factional bosses are not moving away from Rudd.

''We hang together or we hang apart,'' said one. He adds that one of the government's remaining strengths is stability and to undermine that would be near fatal. A minister says Gillard would have to make the first move and she is not interested. ''There's a threshhold. Julia's not doing anything.''

Those who are keeping their nerve predict the polls will stay pretty much where they are until the election campaign is called. ''It's serious - we've got a contest on our hands,'' another minister readily acknowledges.

''I'm not convinced it's all about the ETS. It's a lot of little things like the cigarette tax, insulation, childcare centres. It's all just built up.

''I don't detect anger, I detect annoyance. Until they get angry, I'll remain an optimist.''

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