By Michelle Grattan and Paul Austin
THE Abbott Coalition has broken through for the first time to a clear election-winning lead of 53-47 per cent in an Age/Nielsen poll that will rattle Labor and intensify pressure to change its increasingly unpopular mining tax.
The government is losing the resource tax debate, with support for the tax down 3 points to 41 per cent and opposition up 2 points to 49 per cent during the past month.
Labor's two-party vote has fallen 3 points - a dramatic swing of nearly 6 per cent since the 2007 election that, if uniform, would wipe out 29 seats. That would push it from government and give the Coalition a big majority. But voters are flocking to the Greens rather than to the Coalition - and they are turning off both leaders, who are polling almost equally on approval and disapproval as their support plummets.
The ALP primary vote has dived 4 points to a rock-bottom 33 per cent. Prime Minister Kevin Rudd's approval has fallen 4 points to 41 per cent - on top of last month's 14-point tumble.
Opposition leader Tony Abbott speaking with Moore Wilton at the Italian National Day Celebrations. Photo Steven Siewert
But while the Coalition's primary vote is up a point to 43 per cent, Tony Abbott's approval is down 5 points to 41 per cent.
Both Mr Rudd and Mr Abbott now have disapproval ratings above 50 per cent for the first time. Mr Rudd's disapproval is up 3 points to 52 per cent, while Mr Abbott's has increased 6 to 51 per cent.
The Greens have surged to 15 per cent, a rise of 2 points and their best vote in the Nielsen poll. The Greens' vote is almost double what they polled in the lower house in 2007.
There is now only a 10-point gap on preferred prime minister. This is the smallest gap Mr Rudd has had with any of the three opposition leaders he has faced. Mr Rudd leads 49 per cent (down 4) to Mr Abbott's 39 per cent (up 1).
The Coalition is getting only a 1 per cent swing on primary votes since the election. Pollster John Stirton said the result ''still looks like a protest against the government and Rudd, but it's now big enough to tip Labor out of office''.
Labor's primary vote shows a 10 per cent swing since the last election and is the lowest in the Nielsen poll since immediately after the September 11, 2001, terrorist attacks in the US.
Mr Rudd's net approval is minus 11, the lowest for a prime minister since May 2001. Mr Abbott's net approval is minus 10, his first negative rating.
This is the first time since January 2006 the Coalition has a tow-party lead. Its two-party vote is its best since January 2005. While most people still expect Labor to win the election (55 per cent), this is down 16 points since April.
The poll of 1400 was taken from Thursday to Saturday.
Voters have gone from being close to evenly split on the mining tax in May to a substantial gap opening this month, fuelled by the industry's campaign and argument about the government's advertising. The TV ads started yesterday.
Victorian Premier John Brumby yesterday stepped up pressure on Mr Rudd to give ground on the mining tax, saying the threshold at which mining company profits started to be taxed at 40 per cent ''needs to be higher'' than the proposed 6 per cent.
Mr Abbott's plan to reintroduce a version of the Pacific solution has appealed to voters, with 62 per cent approving the processing of asylum seekers offshore, including more than four in 10 Labor voters and 85 per cent of Coalition supporters.
The Coalition has a decisive but modest lead over Labor on which party has the best asylum-seeker policy - 35-19 per cent, with the Greens on 18 per cent.
The government is holding up better in Victoria than in other states, with a 50-50 two-party vote. In Western Australia it is trailing 37-63 per cent.
The resource tax divides on sharp party lines. It is supported by nearly two-thirds of Labor and Green voters but only 16 per cent of Coalition voters. In Western Australia, six in 10 people oppose it, and 51 per cent in Queensland, where last week Xstrata said it was suspending projects and laying off people.
Mr Rudd and his ministers will get a taste of the opposition to the resource tax in WA when community cabinet meets in Perth on Wednesday.
Mr Brumby reaffirmed his call for the Prime Minister to ensure the new tax did not apply to existing projects, admitting it was ''an issue''.
''If you are investing in a big mining project you need to have a secure investment environment - not just for two years or three years, you need it for 10, 20 and 30 years,'' Mr Brumby told reporters in Melbourne. He called on Mr Rudd to negotiate concessions with the industry.
Greens leader Bob Brown delivered another blow to Labor, which will be looking for as strong a flow as possible of Green preferences at the election, when he told the ABC: ''My advice to voters is vote Green but then put the preference ultimately for one of the big parties or independents in the order of your own choice.''