By Paul Austin
TED Baillieu is poised to claim victory and form Victoria's first Coalition government in 11 years, after vote counting last night gave the Liberals a commanding lead in the deciding seat of Bentleigh.
Mr Baillieu will convene a special meeting of his shadow cabinet this morning to prepare to take office, after the savage anti-Labor swing in Saturday's election.
Labor factions have begun talks on who should replace John Brumby as leader, amid growing anger over the party's performance at the election and pessimism about their prospects of clinging to power.
After counting last night, the Liberals' lead in Bentleigh had doubled to more than 400 votes. If the seat is confirmed for the Liberals, Mr Brumby is expected to concede defeat and Mr Baillieu will go to Government House to advise the Governor that he has the numbers to form a majority in Parliament and become Victoria's 46th premier.
Tide turner: Ted Baillieu takes an early morning swim at Brighton yesterday after the Coalition parties secured a decisive swing in Saturday's state election, all but ensuring that the Liberal leader will become Victoria's next premier.Credit: Jason South
Winning Bentleigh would give the Coalition 45 seats in the 88-member lower house, with Labor on 42 and the seat of Macedon still in doubt. Mr Baillieu told The Age last night that the Coalition had won the popular vote and received ''an absolute endorsement from the majority of voters in Victoria … The Coalition stands ready to deliver stable and certain government to Victoria.''
Nationals leader Peter Ryan, who will be deputy premier if the Coalition is confirmed as the election winner, said Saturday's vote had destroyed the Labor government's legitimacy and Mr Brumby's authority as Premier.
Mr Ryan said Mr Brumby should ''please leave quietly and close the door as you go''.
Mr Brumby last night was refusing to concede defeat or reveal what he would do if Labor lost, saying there was still the prospect of a hung Parliament.
That could result in Mr Brumby as caretaker Premier advising the Governor to issue writs for another election early next year to break the deadlock.
But Labor insiders last night were increasingly pessimistic about even achieving a hung Parliament, with MPs from across the factions saying they expected Mr Brumby would step down as leader if the Coalition was confirmed as the winner.
The Socialist Left faction is preparing to push Health Minister Daniel Andrews for leader. The Right's favoured candidate is Water Minister Tim Holding.
Left-wing Regional and Rural Affairs Minister Jacinta Allan could also be in the mix, with some senior party figures suggesting she should replace Attorney-General Rob Hulls as deputy leader if the ALP goes into opposition and has to rebuild.
Labor has lost at least 11 seats to the Liberals, mainly in Melbourne's eastern and south-eastern suburbs, including those of Women's Affairs Minister Maxine Morand (Mount Waverley), Gaming Minister Tony Robinson (Mitcham) and cabinet secretary Tony Lupton (Prahran). But Labor did comparatively well in regional Victoria, with Ms Allen (Bendigo East) and Agriculture Minister Joe Helper (Ripon) holding on to their marginal seats.
The Nationals defeated the only independent member in the lower house, Craig Ingram (Gippsland East), increasing the minor Coalition partner's numbers to 10.
The Greens were in damage control yesterday, blaming the Coalition's mid-campaign decision to direct preferences to Labor ahead of the minor party for their failure to win any seats in the lower house.
Mr Brumby defended his campaign, saying that in retrospect there was nothing he would have done differently. He ascribed the anti-Labor swing to a build-up of voter resentment over the government's three terms in office.
''Whenever you have long-term government, there is just wear and tear,'' Mr Brumby said.
''When you are defending 11 years … there is always a tendency for people to say, 'Why didn't you do that earlier?' ''
His Labor predecessor, Steve Bracks, said the Liberals had run a good campaign, turning the election into ''a referendum on the Labor government and really focusing on us rather than them''.
''It's the sort of campaign I would have run if I was them,'' Mr Bracks said.