In search of the Julia Effect

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This was published 13 years ago

In search of the Julia Effect

By Farrah Tomazin

John Brumby is desperate for the new PM's popularity to repair the party's ''brand''.

THIRTEEN years ago, John Brumby was Julia Gillard's boss. Back then, he was state opposition leader, struggling to lead a party lost in the political wilderness. She was his chief of staff, a former union lawyer with aspirations to climb the ranks of Parliament. Now the dynamics have changed: Gillard is the head of the country, and Brumby is running the state. But both are untested as leaders at the ballot box, trying to win elections in their own right.

Illustration: Spooner

Illustration: Spooner

Given their history as colleagues and friends - not to mention the narrowing gap between Labor and the Coalition in Victoria - it was hardly surprising that on the day Gillard became Prime Minister, Brumby could barely wipe the smile from his face.

Two weeks later, the dust has settled and Gillard is riding high in the polls, but the broader impact for state Labor remains unclear. A federal election is looming, possibly within a matter of weeks, but will Gillard's ascension boost the Brumby government's stocks when Victorians vote at the November 27 state election?

Probably not as much as Labor hardheads would like. As in most state elections, this one will be decided on local issues - transport, health, education, law and order, to name but a few - and the broader question of who would make a better premier: Brumby or Coalition leader Ted Baillieu.

That's not to say there won't be positive flow-ons from Gillard's elevation (bearing in mind she also has to win her own election battle). ALP strategists point to the polling conducted earlier this year that showed Rudd's dwindling popularity - and his handling of issues such as the ETS, asylum seekers and the insulation debacle - was starting to "trash" the Labor brand. Gillard's ascension, they say, will change all that.

Voters are also a parochial bunch, and so can be expected to like the fact that Gillard is a Victorian. She lives in Melbourne's west, and knows the issues that make the state tick. She's a consensus politician compared with Rudd, and according to internal polling has "stratospheric" appeal - particularly among women - in the inner-city seats that are most at risk of falling to the Greens, such as the knife-edge seat of Melbourne. And, in contrast to Brumby's somewhat icy relationship with Rudd (most evident during the health debate) Gillard's history with Brumby and Deputy Premier Rob Hulls will no doubt strengthen state-federal co-operation, which will be critical when it comes to national reform and yet-to-be tested issues such as climate change.

But Gillard's popularity should not be overstated in the context of the state election, when local woes such as overcrowded trains, the Myki debacle, drunken violence, overstretched hospitals, delayed ambulances or soaring water and electricity costs are continuing to bite the government. Let's face it, these issues don't miraculously disappear just because a popular Victorian woman happens to be running the country.

After 11 years in government - and billions of dollars in surpluses and revenue - the question Victorian voters will rightly be asking is this: has the state government done enough to deserve a fourth term in office?

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At first glance, the latest Newspoll should cause Labor concern. Only five months before the election, the Brumby Government's primary vote has dropped for the fifth time in a row, to 34 per cent - the worst result for the party since the dying days of the Kirner government in 1992. While the government is still ahead of the Coalition on a two-party preferred basis (51-49), the gap is narrowing (from 52-48 in April, and 57-43 last December). And in an equally worrying sign for Labor, most of the government's votes are being lost to the Greens, whose primary vote jumped from 14 per cent in April to a record 18 per cent this month.

The good news for Brumby is that the poll was taken in May and June, before Gillard became Prime Minister, at a time when Rudd was losing ground federally. (Indeed Brumby's response to the slump was to blame Rudd, saying that federal "issues" had affected the result.) But after a decade in office, many believe the government is looking old and tired - although doubts still hang over Baillieu and his largely invisible frontbench.

The Greens, too, are a credible threat in the inner city, where young, left-leaning, tertiary-educated voters appear to be increasingly disillusioned by the major parties. While recent history suggests the Green vote tends to rise significantly before elections - only to fall away in the final weeks of the campaign as the major parties ramp up their advertising - there is little doubt that state seats such as Melbourne (held by Education Minister Bronwyn Pike by only 2 per cent); Richmond (held by Housing Minister Richard Wynne by 3.65 per cent), and Brunswick (held by 3.64 per cent) are at risk of falling to the Greens.

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Brumby might be right when he says his government has "a good story to tell" - after all, Victoria has weathered the storm of the economic downturn better than any other non-resource state, unemployment is at 5.4 per cent, schools have been dramatically reformed, and regional Victoria is growing at a record pace. The danger, however, is that Victorians have stopped listening. With five months before voters head to the ballot box, Labor will no doubt be hoping the new Prime Minister's popularity will rub off on her old boss. But while she might give the state government a much-needed initial boost, she is certainly not the panacea for its woes.

Farrah Tomazin is Victorian affairs editor.

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