Coalition closes in on Labor

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This was published 13 years ago

Coalition closes in on Labor

By Paul Austin

TED Baillieu's Coalition is closing on Premier John Brumby and is within striking distance of the government two weeks before the election.

An Age/Nielsen poll taken at the halfway point of the month-long campaign shows Labor with an election-winning advantage over the Coalition - but the lead is getting narrower, the opposition's primary vote is getting bigger and the Greens are poised to cut a swathe through Labor's inner-city heartland.

The poll gives Labor 52 per cent of the vote after distribution of preferences from the Greens and other minor parties, and the Coalition 48 per cent.

This is a swing against the government of 1 percentage point over the first two weeks of the campaign - and an anti-Labor swing of 2.5 points since the last state election in 2006.

The poll suggests Labor will lose seats to both the Coalition and the Greens, and that the 11-year-old government could be in danger of defeat.

The Greens are attracting 16 per cent of the primary vote across Victoria, way up on the 10 per cent they gained at the last election.

In metropolitan Melbourne the Greens are attracting 18 per cent of the primary vote - suggesting they will win lower house seats for the first time and could seize the balance of power in State Parliament.

The Labor seats in danger of falling to the minor party are: Melbourne, held by Education Minister Bronwyn Pike with a margin of 2 per cent, Richmond (Housing Minister Richard Wynne, 3.6 per cent), Brunswick (3.6 per cent, being contested for Labor by Yarra mayor Jane Garrett) and possibly Northcote (held by parliamentary secretary Fiona Richardson with a margin of 8.5 per cent).

If the Age/Nielsen poll results were replicated at the November 27 election, Labor would also be in danger of losing at least five seats to the Liberals, including two held by ministers.

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The government seats under threat from the Liberals are: Mount Waverley, held by Women's Affairs Minister Maxine Morand with a margin of just 0.3 per cent, Gembrook (backbencher Tammy Lobato, 0.7 per cent), Forest Hill (backbencher Kirstie Marshall, 0.8 per cent), Mitcham (Gaming Minister Tony Robinson, 2 per cent), and South Barwon (parliamentary secretary for water Michael Crutchfield, 2.3 per cent).

If the Coalition were able to pick up a further swing of 1.5 per cent over the last two weeks of the campaign, another four Labor-held seats would be in jeopardy: Frankston, held by backbencher Alistair Harkness with a margin of 3.2 per cent, Mordialloc (backbencher Janice Munt, 3.6 per cent), Prahran (cabinet secretary Tony Lupton, 3.6 per cent) and Burwood (backbencher Bob Stensholt, 3.8 per cent).

Labor insiders are also worried about their prospects in at least three other non-metropolitan seats: Ripon, north-west of Ballarat, Bendigo East (Regional and Rural Development Minister Jacinta Allan) and Seymour (parliamentary secretary for agriculture Ben Hardman).

Labor will lose its majority in the 88-member lower house, producing a hung parliament, if it loses 11 seats. The Coalition has to win 13 extra seats to be able to form government in its own right.

The telephone poll of 1000 voters across the state - taken on Wednesday and Thursday - comes as Mr Baillieu and Mr Brumby prepare for their official campaign launches.

The Coalition launch will be in Melbourne tomorrow. The Labor launch, in Bendigo on Tuesday, is expected to feature a video message from Prime Minister Julia Gillard, who will be in Canberra because Federal Parliament will be in session.

The poll shows Mr Brumby has a commanding 53 per cent to 37 per cent lead over Mr Baillieu as preferred premier.

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The Premier's approval rating is 53 per cent, up two points on the previous Age/Nielsen poll taken two weeks ago. His disapproval rating is 40 per cent, down 1 point since the start of the campaign.

Mr Baillieu's approval rating is also up 2 points, to 45 per cent, and his disapproval rating is also down 1 point, to 45 per cent. Labor's primary vote is 38 per cent - no change on two weeks earlier, but down from 43 per cent at the last election.

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