Libs are breeds apart

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This was published 13 years ago

Libs are breeds apart

By Melissa Fyfe

Will Tony Abbott present a problem or an opportunity for Ted Baillieu?

TONY Abbott and Ted Baillieu are alike in some ways. They're both fit. They like swimming. They bravely wear Speedos. And they are, of course, both Liberal Party opposition leaders fighting for their political lives.

Illustration: Connolly

Illustration: Connolly

But that's about where the likeness ends. They may be cut from the same political cloth, but each wears a different style of suit. Abbott is a political fistfighter; Baillieu is often criticised for avoiding the king-hit. The Victorian is from the moderate faction, the New South Welshman hails proudly from the party's right.

In this election, Abbott has prosecuted a particular brand of Liberalism - anti-immigration, anti-carbon price, anti-boat people - which increasingly clashes with Baillieu's worldview. This is awkward for all concerned, and possibly explains Baillieu's absences during Victorian campaign visits. But the bigger question is: come November's state election, will Tony Abbott be a problem or an opportunity for Ted Baillieu?

First, back to the philosophical differences. Baillieu and his office refused to answer The Sunday Age's questions on some of Abbott's favourite policy positions, so we must refer to the public record. On immigration - Abbott is promising to cut and cap skilled migration at 170,000 a year - Baillieu has a proud history of supporting Indian and Chinese migrants in particular and has been pro-growth, with the caveat that we must plan better and not accept ''population growth for its own sake''. The state opposition also supports an emissions trading scheme.

It is not a state issue, but it would be remarkable if Baillieu backed Abbott's decision to ''get tough'' on asylum seekers, particularly the reintroduction of the Pacific solution and temporary protection visas. One of Baillieu's key backers and mentors, the former member for Kooyong, Petro Georgiou, led the internal campaign against John Howard on these measures.

Abbott is a campaigning social conservative who limited Australian women's access to the abortion pill RU-486, while Baillieu voted in the Victorian Parliament for abortion reform, same-sex couple recognition and stem cell research.

Abbott's brand of Liberalism is clearly not playing well in Victoria (and particularly, it seems, with Victorian former prime minister Malcolm Fraser, who took a swipe last week at the party's conservatism and its move ''further and further to the right'').

An Abbott-led Coalition has dipped, in the latest Newspoll, to a primary vote of 36 per cent in Victoria, the lowest in the nation (compare this to the Baillieu-led state Coalition's primary vote of 40 per cent). Victorians consistently mark Abbott down when asked in polls if they are satisfied with or approve of his performance and whether he'd make a better prime minister.

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This is perhaps partly explained by the moderate nature of the Victorian electorate. For years, the state has been slowly turning itself into what is now widely recognised as a stronghold for federal Labor. To explain this, political scientists point to the state's history - from its protectionist stance at Federation, high migrant intake, urbanised and large working-class electorates - and add that even its conservative politicians such as Menzies, Fraser, Peacock, Bolte and Hamer have been moderates in their party's eyes. Jeff Kennett was no economic moderate but was socially progressive and factionally aligned to Baillieu.

Baillieu's brand of Liberalism has much more in common with the giants of the Victorian Liberal Party than with Abbott. (''Ted is more small 'l' liberal than some of Brumby's ministers,'' notes one Liberal MP). And Baillieu had more in common with former federal Liberal leader Malcolm Turnbull, who probably would have fared better in Victoria than Abbott is. It is possible Abbott is hurting the Liberal brand in Victoria, although voters are very good at differentiating between the state and federal spheres. A Coalition win could also convince some Victorians they need to balance the federal-state ledger with the re-election of the more moderate Brumby government.

These are the problems Abbott poses for Baillieu. There are, of course, opportunities. And Labor is very aware of them. When The Sunday Age asked Labor strategists about the differences between Baillieu and Abbott, what we got back was a list of the two leaders' similarities (pro-WorkChoices, against IVF for lesbians, for example). Labor does not want Baillieu presenting himself as a moderate. That's their turf.

Labor - which has struggled to characterise Baillieu this election year - want to paint him as an ideological, cold-hearted cost-cutter, a hardman like Kennett (mind you, when it suits them, they label him ''weak''). Labor was keen to point to Abbott and Baillieu's admiration of Kennett's record in government. ''Ted Baillieu has deliberately tried to say that he is different to Abbott, because he knows Abbott's politics would not be as popular in Victoria as they are in New South Wales,'' says a senior government source. ''This is Baillieu's political strategy, but it is an attempt at deception - he is a conservative through and through.''

But has Baillieu really painted himself as a moderate to the Victorian electorate? If he has, it's a patchy canvas. One minute he comes out strongly against racism, the next he wants to ban bongs and allow cattle back into alpine national parks. He criticises the government's record on family and human services but there's no big vision to match Labor's Fairer Victoria program.

Indeed, the Abbott contrast seems to underline the reality of Baillieu's political life in opposition. He clearly comes from these small-l liberal traditions but appears to often subvert them - for the federal opposition leader; for his National Party partners, who nudge the Coalition further to the right (hence cows in parks); for the members of the party's more hardline faction; and for the election, to win over swinging voters.

This last one, particularly in the area of law and order, tends to drag everyone, including Labor, to the right. All of this makes Baillieu somewhat of a shapeshifter.

It is obvious and understandable that, during a federal election, Baillieu does not want to stand up and declare his differences with Abbott. But after the election, as November approaches, he does need to more clearly define his philosophies. In the wake of Tony Abbott's Liberalism - or during its reign in Canberra, depending on the election result - Victorians need to see the true nature of Ted Baillieu.

Melissa Fyfe is The Sunday Age's state political reporter. You can follow her at twitter.com/melfyfe

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