A new opinion poll in Australia shows Prime Minister Julia Gillard is heading for a shock defeat at elections on 21 August.
Defeat for Ms Gillard, though still considered unlikely by most other opinion polls and political experts, would sink her plans to slap a 30% tax on iron ore and coal mines, to introduce carbon-trading and to build a $33 billion-plus broadband network.
Ms Gillard took the leadership barely five weeks ago from unpopular predecessor Kevin Rudd, who was dumped by his own Labour MPs, but their gamble on the country's first woman prime minister leading them back to government is looking riskier by the day.
The latest Nielsen poll, published in The Sydney Morning Herald and The Age newspapers, showed that support for Gillard's Labour party had dived six percentage points to 48%, behind the conservative opposition with an election-winning 52%.
Opinion polls have been erratic but, on balance, they have favoured Ms Gillard.
The Reuters Poll Trend, a statistical analysis that aims to smooth out the volatility of differing poll results, shows Ms Gillard winning a slightly increased majority.
The new Nielsen poll shows two-thirds of voters still expect Ms Gillard to win, despite many shifting to opposition leader Tony Abbott, but it will still come as a shock for Labour which is struggling to heal the wounds of Mr Rudd's dumping.
On the campaign trail today, Mr Abbott dismissed the latest poll results and said he remained ‘very much the underdog’ in the election.
The new poll, conducted over two days this week, followed leaks of cabinet discussions to newspapers which said they showed Ms Gillard, the then deputy prime minister, had opposed decisions to boost the state pension and paid paternity leave.
If the 21 August election were to mirror the latest poll results, the opposition would win an additional 28 seats in the lower House of parliament, 11 more than it needs to form a government, The Sydney Morning Herald said.
Mr Rudd, who is re-contesting his parliamentary seat, has denied he or his camp is behind the recent cabinet leaks and has reaffirmed his support for Ms Gillard's campaign, but the damaging leaks against her continued.
The Australian newspaper, quoting unnamed sources, said Ms Gillard as deputy prime minister had skipped national-security meetings and instead sent a junior staffer, her former bodyguard, to stand in for her at the cabinet-level discussions.
The story, which she has declined to comment on, citing cabinet confidentiality, follows similar reports this month that Mr Rudd had also skipped the same meetings - a pattern of leaks that highlights bad blood between the Gillard and Rudd camps.
Labour cabinet minister Craig Emerson said the government still had three weeks to appeal to voters before polling day but conceded the election would be close.
