The result is clear: voters are fed up

This poll takes Labor into panic territory. It is a disaster for Kevin Rudd, especially as bad polls have their own momentum. But there are a couple of very important qualifications.

Tony Abbott isn't pulling across to the Coalition as many of the disillusioned voters as he should.

Pollster John Stirton, who says the result still looks like a protest, observes Labor is down 10 points on 2007, but the Coalition is getting only 10 per cent of that, with 90 per cent going to the Greens and independents. The opposition's biggest problem is that Abbott is just as unpopular, if not more so, than Rudd, Stirton says.

Bombarded by two apparently unconvincing leaders, people are fed up. The big parties' combined vote (76 per cent) is the lowest since May 2001. Unless Abbott can persuade people to feel more confident about him, much of this floating vote is likely to return directly or indirectly to Labor.

But the headline results will themselves be corrosive for Rudd, sending tremors through MPs holding marginal seats and starting further leadership talk in the media.

Protest votes are dangerous for a government on a relatively narrow margin, and there has been a significant fall in those expecting a Labor win.

The mining tax is bleeding Labor nationally, not just in affected areas. One would have thought the government could have convinced people of its rationale. But the PM doesn't seem able to sell anything any more.

The results emphasise the government's need to sort out its final position soon, but Rudd has been in no hurry. He's caught - the pressure for a compromise is enormous, but the political cost of one is rising because it will be another ''backflip''. With things so much on the slide, the risk for Rudd is that the government's tight discipline could start to fray.