By Paul Austin
PREFERENCE negotiations between Labor and the Greens have broken down, with the ALP now resigned to a Coalition-Greens deal that could bring down the Brumby government.
After the Greens yesterday refused to meet a Labor-imposed deadline for a deal, the ALP fears the Liberals will deliver preferences to the Greens in a clutch of inner-Melbourne seats, imperilling four ALP members including ministers Bronwyn Pike and Richard Wynne.
Labor believes that, in return, the Greens will distribute ''open'' how-to-vote cards in key ALP-held marginal seats in Melbourne's eastern and south-eastern suburbs - dramatically increasing the Liberals' prospects of snatching power at the November 27 election.
Premier John Brumby's campaign director, Nick Reece, declared last night that the Greens were now ''likely to elect a conservative Liberal/Nationals Coalition government''.
Greens officials confirmed talks with Labor had reached an impasse, but denied having struck a deal with the Coalition.
''At the moment we have no deal in place with any party,'' Greens MP Greg Barber told The Age. ''From our point of view, there is no hurry.''
But Labor wants within days to start printing millions of how-to-vote cards for distribution around the state, and is furious the Greens are refusing to deal.
Mr Reece said Labor had told the Greens it would preference them ahead of the Liberals in all 88 lower house seats, and had asked the Greens to preference the ALP ahead of the Coalition.
Labor ministers and backroom negotiations believe the Greens' refusal to sign up to the deal shows they are planning instead to strike an anti-Labor arrangement with the Liberals.
Liberal sources have confirmed the party is talking with the Greens, but deny any decisions have yet been reached about the flow of preferences.
Labor fears the Liberals will direct their preferences to the Greens in the seats of Melbourne (held by Ms Pike with a margin over the Greens of just 2 per cent), Richmond (Mr Wynne, 3.6 per cent), Brunswick (being contested for Labor by Yarra mayor Jane Garrett, also with a margin of 3.6 per cent) and Northcote (held by Labor parliamentary secretary Fiona Richardson, 8.5 per cent).
Labor expects the quid pro quo will be that the Greens, instead of preferencing Labor as they normally do, will distribute ''open'' how-to-vote cards in several marginal seats the Liberals hope to win from Labor.
An ''open'' card would ask people to vote ''1'' Greens and then number the rest of the ballot paper in whatever order they wish. This would increase the number of preference votes won by the Liberals.
Seats where open tickets from the Greens could prove crucial for the Liberals include: Mount Waverley (held by Women's Affairs Minister Maxine Morand, with a margin of just 0.3 per cent over the Liberals), Gembrook (backbencher Tammy Lobato, 0.7 per cent), Forest Hill (backbencher Kirstie Marshall, 0.8 per cent), Mitcham (Gaming Minister Tony Robinson, 2 per cent), Mordialloc (backbencher Janice Munt, 3.5 per cent) and Burwood (backbencher Bob Stensholt, 3.7 per cent).
Mr Brumby will lose his majority if Labor loses 11 seats.
Mr Reece, who is also ALP state secretary, last night said the Greens were ''taking Victoria into dangerous territory''.
Greens voters should remember that Mr Baillieu would ''destroy the renewable energy sector'' by introducing crippling restrictions on new wind farms, would allow more logging in native forests and would have as his attorney-general the socially conservative Liberal MP Robert Clark, who had ''likened homosexuality to being born with spina bifida'', he told The Age.