Labor 2.0: a lumbering beast that might just avoid extinction

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This was published 13 years ago

Labor 2.0: a lumbering beast that might just avoid extinction

By PHILLIP COOREY

THE soft carpet throughout the ministerial wing in Parliament House has its benefits, especially if you are a Labor minister walking behind two Liberal frontbenchers who do not realise you are there as they discuss the various shortcomings of their colleagues.

On Wednesday, the Liberal Party was abuzz as Andrew Robb sounded out the numbers for a tilt at the deputy leadership. If successful, Robb could then choose his own portfolio, which would involve knocking off Joe Hockey for the shadow treasury. Robb's push had the support of the two shadow ministers walking along the corridor outside Julia Gillard's office, reported the minister. ''Don't get me wrong, I'm a friend of Joe's but we've got to think what's best for Joe and the party,'' one said to the other.

As events transpired, Robb's push was aborted when Tony Abbott and other heavy hitters stepped in and stressed the need for stability.

Abbott will reshuffle his frontbench this week after Gillard unveiled her new line-up on Saturday. There were few surprises. Kevin Rudd got foreign affairs, Greg Combet and Craig Emerson deservedly moved into cabinet while Bill Shorten only moved as far as the junior ministry.

Yes, Shorten was a plotter and, yes, he was promoted, but it is arguable he would have gone straight into cabinet were it not for the sensitivities about rewarding plotters. Ditto for Mark Arbib, who stayed in the junior ministry but received a better job. The elevation to parliamentary secretaries of Don Farrell and David Feeney, two supposedly ''faceless men'' despite being actual senators, were certainly rewards.

The decision to abort the Robb challenge means Abbott will leave Hockey in treasury, Robb in finance and Julie Bishop in foreign affairs.

Malcolm Turnbull will pretend to be happy with whatever he is given. The tip is either communications or defence.

There is plenty of free advice being given inside the Liberal Party as to what Abbott should do. A growing and restless element wants him to put the broom through the place and push aside veterans such as Kevin Andrews, Ian Macfarlane and Bronwyn Bishop to start blooding newer MPs in preparation for the next challenge. The counter view is to leave things as unchanged as possible because the line-up nearly worked, and the team should stay in place to exert maximum pressure on the unwieldy minority Labor government in the hope it collapses.

Despite the initial onslaught from angered Coalition members that the government - propped up by a Green and three independents - was illegitimate, defied commonsense and was even corrupt, a key point has been ignored.

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The new government is a coalition of self-interest - and never bet against self-interest. For it to collapse, one of Andrew Wilkie, Tony Windsor, Rob Oakeshott or the Greens' Adam Bandt will have to abandon it and presumably force another election.

This, one would assume, would produce a return to normal with a majority government. The four minor players would have dealt themselves back into irrelevancy.

This point has not been lost inside Labor. After all the shooting stopped last week, there was relief Bob Katter was not part of the equation. Of all the independents, he was the most unpredictable and would have been the hardest to accommodate.

Yes, Shorten was a plotter and, yes, he was promoted, but it is arguable he would have gone straight into cabinet were it not for the sensitivities about rewarding plotters.

The other four have their differences, but all agree in principle to a carbon tax and a profits-based tax on mining, the two most contentious policy issues on the horizon for the next three years. Katter opposes these measures.

Nor is the point lost on the minor players. The opposition and other detractors are hoping for the Greens to blow the show up with their ''extreme'' policy agenda. Yet the Greens leader, Bob Brown, and his deputy, Christine Milne, are proving a lot more savvy than they have been given credit for.

When they signed the deal with Labor the week before last, it was deliberately devoid of any contentious policy ideas. Even Abbott said he would have accommodated 99 per cent of its demands.

Milne said afterwards that the Greens and Labor alone do not constitute a majority in the lower house. Everything the Greens suggest has to bear that in mind.

Last week, Brown admitted he did not push for a ministry because it would have been fuel for a Greens-Labor axis-of-evil scare campaign to exert pressure on the independents yet to make up their minds. At the same press conference, journalists tried to get Brown to say he would push for death duties, which are official Greens policy. Given neither the government nor the opposition would ever countenance such a proposal, Brown said ''the answer is no''.

The new arrangement, yet to be tested, has the potential to be a slow, plodding beast, but whether it collapses rests with the players, none off whom have an interest in allowing that to happen. Abbott should bear that in mind as he mulls his frontbench options this week.

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