By Michelle Grattan
MALCOLM Turnbull has given his strongest indication yet that the Coalition could eventually pass the emissions trading scheme to avoid Kevin Rudd calling an early election over it.
In a confidential breakfast with the Business Council of Australia, Mr Turnbull warned that if Mr Rudd won an early election, his ETS scheme would "undoubtedly" get through a joint sitting of the Senate and the House of Representatives.
Labor's best chance of winning an election would be before next May, Mr Turnbull said in Wednesday's tough-talking exchange.
During the meeting, Mr Turnbull called on the business leaders to propose amendments the Opposition could put up when the legislation went before the Senate a second time. He stressed the Business Council should be willing to back strongly the Opposition's promotion of such changes.
When he asked for a show of hands on who wanted a double dissolution election that would enable the scheme to get through a joint sitting of Parliament unchanged, none of about 50 people there put up a hand.
The Senate is due to vote on the scheme for a first time next week. But the Opposition, which says legislation should be deferred until after the December Copenhagen climate conference, is trying to avoid a vote until the spring session.
To be a "trigger" for a double dissolution of Parliament and an early election, legislation must be defeated twice with a three-month gap.
Mr Turnbull got as good as he gave at the session with business leaders. Business Council president Greig Gailey said "most people around this room would say that the Opposition doesn't have a clear policy".
When Mr Turnbull asked Peter Coates of Xstrata whether the Opposition was perceived as having no position other than to put the emissions trading legislation off until next year, Mr Coates said: "That is the view."
Mr Turnbull said Mr Rudd could get his scheme through in three ways: agreement with cross-bench senators, agreement with the Opposition, or a double dissolution election followed by a joint sitting.
Mr Turnbull said business leaders should be supporting the Opposition's position. "You should be out there saying to the Government, 'The Opposition is being thoroughly rational about this let's finalise the design of this scheme early in the new year.'
"The difficulty is that when we say that, we have your criticism of us. You have got to remember everything a politician says is judged with a degree of scepticism by the public third party endorsements or disendorsements are extremely influential."
The Business Council was involved in a compromise deal the Government did with business and sections of the conservation movement in a bid to make the scheme more acceptable to the Senate.
Mr Turnbull said many Opposition supporters would be saying, "Rudd's going to get his ETS in one of three ways and we want you to try to ensure we get the least worst ETS."
An early election would be a huge risk for the Prime Minister, Mr Turnbull said.
"But there is no doubt, I think objectively, that his prospects of winning an election are materially better if he goes before next May's budget because he clearly didn't take too many tough decisions this May and at some point he's going to have to do that."
Mr Gailey said there were still some issues in the legislation of concern to business "and we would ideally like the Opposition to negotiate with the Government and reach a bipartisan position which offered the best scheme and also certainty".